"It looks like we are headed to a photo finish if the polls are reliable," said Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Chow's pitch largely rested on her track record. She framed the city as better off now than it was when she took over from John Tory in the 2023 byelection. Her campaign highlighted the deal to upload city expressway costs to the province, tighter rules for bad-faith evictions, expanded library hours, a transit fare freeze and reduced 911 wait times.
For Bradford, the planner-turned-politician elected to council in 2018, a victory on Monday would be a remarkable turnaround. He stumbled in his first run for mayor in 2023 when he finished eighth citywide, and sixth in his own Beaches-East York ward.
Undeterred, he announced his intent to run again a full year ahead of the election, carving out his position as Chow's main competitor to her political right. The only other candidate to make a dent in opinion polling, former federal Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander, dropped out of the race earlier this month.
Bradford's campaign leaned hard on issues of crime, transit safety and traffic congestion, casting Chow as out of touch with city's anxieties and grievances. He pledged to hire 1,000 police officers and backed mandatory treatment for people suffering from serious addiction, an approach widely criticized by doctors and mental health advocates.
He called for the removal of bike lanes on Bloor Street in Etobicoke and priority bus lanes in Scarborough, two initiatives he previously supported as a councillor. He framed it as a pragmatic responsiveness to local constituents but Chow's campaign accused him of opportunistic flip-flopping. He also faced pushback from 15 council incumbents who spoke out against his plan to spin off the city's water department into a public utility similar to Toronto Hydro.
Bradford promised a one-year property tax freeze and has routinely criticized Chow's hikes. Chow says the increases — 9.5 per cent in her first full budget, followed by 6.9 per cent — were necessary to stabilize the city's post-pandemic finances, vowing to keep future increases at or around the inflation rate.
The tightening race appears to mirror a broader Canadian political climate driven by voter dissatisfaction and a growing desire for change, Siemiatycki said, citing the defeat of Vancouver's Ken Sim and other mayoral incumbents in recent British Columbia municipal elections and the collapse of the CAQ in Quebec's provincial race.
A few weeks ago, it may have been natural for a front-runner like Chow to pursue a "low-risk, low-key campaign" with few flashy promises, said Siemiatycki. The question of whether her campaign pivoted forcefully enough in the face of an insurgent Bradford could hang over Monday's results, he said.
Bradford's mayoral run has left a vacancy in Beaches-East York, one of several open city council races to be closely watched on Monday night. That race is highlighted by former federal Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith and CTV reporter Natalie Johnson.
Mike Layton will look to reclaim his former seat in University-Rosedale after stepping away from municipal politics. To avoid facing off with Layton, the ward's incumbent Dianne Saxe opted instead to run in Toronto-Danforth to replace the retiring Paula Fletcher.
The elder statesman of council's progressive bloc, Gord Perks, is retiring, leaving a seat open in Parkdale-High Park. The field features front-line housing worker Diana Chan McNally, school board trustee Debbie King and former Ontario Liberal candidate Nadia Guerrera.
Incumbents expected to face a stiff challenge in their re-election bids include Chris Moise, Vincent Crisanti, Frances Nunziata and Parthi Kandavel.
Turnout during advance polls surged in this election. More than 220,000 people cast an early vote, a nearly 72 per cent increase over the 2023 mayoral byelection.
Polls are open Monday from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.
The race takes place in the shadow of Premier Doug Ford's repeated forays into city politics. Most recently, the province has unilaterally pursued plans to overhaul the city's protected bike lane network and expand Toronto's island airport.
While Bradford's campaign, which includes former Ford staff, would appear to be a more natural ideological fit with the premier's political brand, it was Chow who got approving words from the Ontario leader earlier in the race. When Ford was asked about the election late last month, he stopped just short of a Chow endorsement when he said the two had a phenomenal relationship and he would continue to support the mayor, telling reporters to "read between the lines".
Ford's office later said it was not an endorsement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2026.
By Jordan Omstead | Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
