Immigration remains contentious in Alberta following referendum

The Alberta referendum results last week have been celebrated across Canada as a victory for national unity over separatism. With more than three-quarters of voters rejecting a move towards independence, the outcome has also been hailed as a political victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney.

But beneath the headlines lies a less reassuring result for Alberta's immigrants. 

Unofficial returns showed the Yes side leading on eight of the nine other referendum questions, including all five concerning immigration and access to public services.

The votes could strengthen Premier Danielle Smith's as she seeks greater provincial control over immigration and restrictions on services for temporary residents.

For Alhan Arsal, a temporary resident from Bangladesh who is pursuing a master’s degree in international relations at the University of Calgary, the results were disappointing although the rejection of separation came as no surprise.

"I can hardly make ends meet as a student," he said. "Paying more for less health care would put many people off from coming here as  students in the future."

Arsal said the results of the referendum "make me uneasy and solidify my conviction to leave the province after graduation."

New Canadian Media previously reported on growing unease among Alberta’s immigrants over the referendum and its anti-immigration rhetoric.

Mixed reactions

Dozie Anyaegbunam is a Calgary-based marketing professional and managing editor of The Newcomers. The online publication and podcast explore immigrant experiences in Canada.

Anyaegbunam said the results were "not that surprising, but nonetheless sad to see."

He said he had hoped the No side would prevail, particularly given how temporary residents — who account for less than 10 per cent of Alberta’s population — had been singled out during the referendum campaign.

"We have a lot of work to do about immigrants and their value to the system in every way," he said, describing newcomers as having been used as a "lightning rod" during the referendum campaign.

Imtiaz bin Hafiz, a lawyer who moved to Alberta from Bangladesh in November 2022 and took his citizenship oath on Oct. 21, said he was also unsurprised by the referendum outcome.

"I expected that a large portion of the people would be in favour of the immigration proposals," he said.

However, he pointed to the narrow margins. With roughly 52 to 55 per cent supporting several of the immigration proposals in the preliminary count, Alberta appeared deeply divided.

"In any case, the majority was in favour of the immigration proposals which will, in my opinion, legitimize these sentiments over immigration in the province," Hafiz said.

For Avnish Nanda, an Edmonton lawyer and co-founder of Our Alberta Advantage, a nonpartisan campaign opposing the referendum’s immigration proposals, the margins also raise questions about the strength of Smith's mandate.

He said the premier had sought overwhelming support for her reforms, while her government spent heavily promoting the referendum.

The province budgeted approximately $4 million for an advertising campaign that included television, radio, online advertising and a booklet mailed to every Alberta household. The government was also permitted to campaign for its preferred outcomes using public funds.

Still,  the immigration questions passed by comparatively narrow margins.

"Given that the Alberta government outspent our campaign by 40 to one ... I think she lost," Nanda said.

"The No side may not have prevailed on the immigration questions by a few percentage points, but we went into Monday thinking we would be blown out, and we weren't."

Rhiannon Hoyle, Alberta NDP shadow minister for jobs, economy and trade, acknowledged that the Yes votes reflected genuine concerns about affordability, employment, health care and public services.

"Those concerns are real and deserve solutions," Hoyle said. "But let's be clear: immigrants didn't create Alberta's affordability crisis, and blaming newcomers won't fix it."

Hoyle, who is herself an immigrant, said the government must take responsibility for adequately funding and planning public services.

What happens next?

Anyaegbunam expects immigration to remain politically contentious.

"I don't think we're done with these sentiments," he said. "We'll probably see it used again in the coming election season, given how many people voted Yes on the immigration questions."

However, the referendum questions are non-binding, leaving the government to determine how to proceed.

Nanda fears Premier Smith will intensify her immigration agenda, further dividing the province.

"I think we're going to be deeply polarized around this issue, that's for sure." 

Hoyle cautioned against interpreting the results as unconditional approval for the government's plans.

"A referendum is not a blank cheque for Danielle Smith to bypass the Constitution or pursue policies that could harm Albertans," she said.

"The government must explain what is legally achievable, what it will cost taxpayers and what the consequences will be for families, workers and businesses."

Manpreet Tiwana, vice-president of the Alberta Liberal Party and an immigrant, also emphasized the limits of provincial authority.

"Alberta has a role to play, but significant aspects of immigration remain under federal jurisdiction, so any proposed changes will require careful consideration and cooperation between both levels of government," Tiwana said.

Hoyle warned that additional financial barriers could discourage the temporary workers and skilled immigrants that Alberta's economy needs.

"Making it harder for them and their families to access essential services could drive away the very talent Alberta needs," she said.

Hafiz was reluctant to predict how lasting the referendum's influence would be.

"A lot of essential services are provided by immigrants,” he said. “Most people in business realize the importance of immigrants in the economy.

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Mubin S. Khan, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, New Canadian Media.