New Poll Says That Pierre Poilievre Would Win An Election Today & Step Aside, Justin
The Tories might be hoping for a snap election.
A new poll has found that if Canada had an election today, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would fair pretty well.
Conducted by independent polling website 338Canada on January 8, projections suggest Canada could likely have a Tory minority government in the event of a snap election held right now.
The site, run by political commentator and science professor P.J.Fournier, predicts that the current Conservative Party could win 35% of the popular vote in Canada with a margin of error of 4%.
Compared to the predicted Liberal party popular vote of 31% with the same margin of error, the Tories seem to have the edge.
Of course, how that translates to seats in Canada's parliament is what really determines who becomes prime minister.
This poll projects that we could see about 144 Conservative seats and 137 Liberal seats in Ottawa, which would mean a Conservative minority in parliament.
These projections were a result of 338Canada's "statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data."
And of course, nothing is set in stone and these predictions are just that – predictions.
But, right now, the odds are in Poilievre's favour, with the poll giving the Conservative Party of Canada a 55% chance of winning the most seats, as opposed to the Liberal Party's odds of 44%.
From these projections the site also predicts that we would have a 47% chance of getting a Conservative minority government – the most seats but not a majority – with the odds of a Liberal minority sitting at 44%.
In the potentialities, there's an 8% chance of a Tory majority, a 1% chance of a tie between the two parties and a less than 1% chance of us getting a Liberal majority.
The third major party in Canada, Jagmeet Singh's NDP, would garner about 21% of the popular vote with a margin of error of 3%. This would translate to about 26 seats, according to the projections.
These projections could change as time goes on, especially given that Canada is not set to have a scheduled election until 2025. And, of course, a whole lot can shift in two years.
But, this does bode well for the new leader of the Conservatives, someone who's both dished out and received criticism from other federal leaders.