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Incumbents have almost unbeatable head start in GTA elections
Thirteen of 14 immigrant and visible-minority candidates in the analysis won their races.
A seat on a municipal council is a stronger predictor of success for immigrant candidates than how much money they raise for their election campaigns, according to an analysis by New Canadian Media and interviews with academics who study electoral dynamics.
With Ontario voters heading to the polls on Oct. 26, NCM reviewed the audited 2022 financial statements of 14 candidates in Toronto, Mississauga and Brampton who have publicly identified as immigrants, the children of immigrants or members of a visible minority. Thirteen won.
NCM counted only candidates who identified themselves as immigrants in an interview, on social media or in an official biography.
Candidates who described themselves as immigrants or the children of immigrants, raised as much and often far more than their rivals in three of the most immigrant-heavy cities in Canada during the 2022 municipal elections. The ones who were already in office had an advantage over new candidates.
More than half of Mississauga's residents (53.2 per cent) and Brampton's (52.9 per cent) were born outside Canada, according to the 2021 census. In Toronto, that number was 46.6 per cent.
Money and office travelled together
Six of the 14 candidates were sitting members, and all six won. Bonnie Crombie raised $505,675 for the Mississauga mayoral race, more than 20 times her nearest rival. In Mississauga's Ward 7, Dipika Damerla raised $40,870, about three times the amount raised by the next closest candidate.
[caption id="attachment_43318" align="alignleft" width="375"] Dipika Damerla. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]
Toronto's Josh Matlow raised $90,668 compared to the $3,425 raised by his closest challenger. In Brampton, Martin Medeiros raised $62,812 against $5,750; and Pat Fortini and Rowena Santos also raised more campaign funds by wide margins. (Matlow is Canadian-born, and his Jewish identity is the only self-identification in our sample.)
The pattern held beyond our sample. In Mississauga, eight of the nine sitting members who ran for office, including the mayor, won.Ron Starr lost Ward 6 to Joe Horneck, 25 per cent to 60 per cent. In Brampton, seven of eight won; regional councillor Gurpreet Dhillon lost Wards 9 and 10 to Gurpartap Singh Toor. In Toronto, Mayor John Tory and 16 sitting councillors won, and Mark Grimes lost Ward 3 to Amber Morley.
[caption id="attachment_43322" align="alignright" width="389"] Rowena Santos. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]
Without an incumbent, money still mattered. In Toronto, Ausma Malik raised $105,944 to win Ward 10, about double that of the next candidate. Alejandra Bravo raised $102,681 in Ward 9 and Chris Moise raised $91,695 in Ward 13. Dianne Saxe won Ward 11 by 123 votes and raised $85,814 compared to the $61,759 raised by her closest rival, Norm Di Pasquale.
Across Toronto and Mississauga, the candidates who were the top fundraisers won 30 of 38 seats.
Where the money lost
In Mississauga Ward 9, Nokha Dakroub raised $37,985, the most in an 11-candidate field — more than twice what the winner, Martin Reid, raised. Still she finished second, 241 votes behind Reid. Alvin Tedjo won Mississauga's Ward 2 but raised less money than Silvia Gualtieri. Lily Cheng won Toronto's Ward 18, but didn’t raise as much for her campaign as Markus O'Brien Fehr.
[caption id="attachment_43321" align="alignleft" width="373"] Martin Medeiros. Photo: The Pointer[/caption]
Damerla, who won Ward 7 with 55 per cent of the vote, is now running for mayor and proposes term limits for the mayor and councillors.
"It's time for fresh ideas and letting somebody else come in," she told NCM. She said a three-term ceiling could open the door to new candidates, though a change like that would have to fit Ontario's legislative framework.
What the experts say
Erin Tolley, a Carleton University professor who studies diversity in Canadian politics, said incumbency is the biggest edge in municipal politics.
"Incumbency is by far the greatest advantage in municipal politics — there's no bigger advantage," she said. Name recognition, a track record on city council and relationships with voters is clearly valuable.
A 2024 study by the Association of Municipalities of Ontario reached a similar conclusion. Based on interviews and surveys with candidates and people considering municipal office, researchers found that many candidates had their first electoral success after an incumbent stepped down.
Some candidates also reported difficulty raising money to compete against sitting councillors. They said potential donors were reluctant to support a challenger because their contributions would become public, and they worried that if the incumbent won, the councillor might be less willing to help them in the future.
Randy Besco, a University of Toronto Mississauga political scientist, co-authored a 2022 study that found visible minorities donate less money on average to federal party candidates; South Asian donors were an exception.
Besco said the results didn't surprise him. "There are lots of very successful immigrants. It doesn't surprise me that some of them are very proficient fundraisers."
He said he has not tested whether the donor findings hold for municipal elections.
Besco cautioned against reading the incumbent's fundraising success as proof of an incumbency effect. Incumbents find it easier to raise money, he said, but "it's possible that it's kind of a selection effect." Candidates who can raise money are the ones who win. He said he doesn’t know which factor is greater.
Besco said immigrant candidates usually run for municipal council in the community where they live, and that wards with many immigrants are easier places for them to run because they might have community networks.
Sukhman Sangha, a lawyer running for an open regional council seat in Brampton's Wards 9 and 10, said money is not the first thing he would tell a new candidate to focus on.
Sangha said he was born in the riding and is the son of Punjabi immigrants. Nine other candidates are running for seats and only one other lives in the riding.
“The biggest obstacle for a first-time candidate in Peel is not knowing how to run a campaign,” Sangha said. He recommends that new candidates first work on someone else's campaign to gain experience in the municipal election system.
Sangha said his previous work as a senior advisor to Ontario's Minister of Transportation taught him how to navigate government. Whether he raised more than his rivals will not be public until the filing deadline in March.
Copyright 2026, New Canadian Media. All rights reserved.
Shilpashree Jagannathan, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, New Canadian Media.
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Some referendum questions flip to 'no' as the count continues in Alberta
Some Alberta referendum questions flip to 'no'
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
More of the constitutional questions in Alberta's historic referendum have flipped to "no" with votes still being counted.
Alberta voters went to the polls on Monday and were asked 10 different questions.
The key question was on separation and roughly 75 per cent of votes backed staying in Canada, but it has taken longer to count votes on the nine other questions.
Early results showed Albertans were in favour of proposals such as choosing their own judges and senators and changing the Constitution to boost provincial rights.
But the "no" side has pulled ahead as the counting has continued.
The "yes" side continue to lead on questions dealing with immigration, but the margins were tight.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2026.
Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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Canadian convicted in U.S. terror plot gets 50 more years for stabbing prison staff
Canadian sentenced for stabbing U.S. prison guards
THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Julia Demaree Nikhinson
An Ontario man convicted of plotting a terrorist attack in the U.S. has been handed an additional 50-year sentence for stabbing two American prison staff.
The U.S. Department of Justice says Abdulrahman El Bahnasawy was an inmate at U.S. Penitentiary Allenwood in Pennsylvania when he stabbed two correctional officers in December 2020.
It says the weapon, made from part of a steel desk in his cell, was used to stab one guard's hand and the other guard's head and face, causing the latter to lose his right eye.
Officials also say a note in El Bahnasawy's sock made reference to a terrorist attack for the Islamic State, and a pledge of allegiance to the group was found in his cell.
He has been serving a sentence for plotting bombings and shootings on behalf of ISIS in New York City.
The 28-year-old pleaded guilty in November 2025 to multiple counts of assault, assault with intent to commit murder, and possession of contraband inside a prison as well as providing material support to ISIS, a designated foreign terrorist organization. The additional sentence will be served consecutive to his previous 40-year conviction.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2026.
By Aaron Sousa | Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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La prod de STAT répond aux comparaisons à « District 31» et « Grey’s Anatomy »
La nouvelle quotidienne reçoit encore des critiques. 👀
La nouvelle quotidienne de Radio-Canada, STAT, fait encore bien des remous sur les réseaux sociaux. Après que les téléspectateur.trices aient critiqué les « erreurs médicales » ainsi que la prononciation des comédien.nes, les fans comparent aussi la série àDistrict 31 ainsi qu'à Grey's Anatomy, ce à quoi la production a répondu.
Ce n'est pas la première fois que la prod répond, alors qu'elle avait déjà abordé la question de la vraisemblance du milieu médical à l'émission. L'équipe avait donc expliqué que certaines décisions sont prises pour respecter la logistique de tournage. Cette fois, les responsables des réseaux sociaux de la série ont donné leur avis au sujet des comparaisons faites avec l'émission policière qui occupait la plage horaire avant celle-ci.
Tout a commencé quand, une fois de plus, des membres du public ont relevé des incohérences entre la réalité et l'organisation de l'hôpital St-Vincent. Un.e internaute a notamment relevé le fait que le personnage de Ludivine Reding, qui est infirmière en salle d'urgence, assiste aussi en salle d'opération, ce qui ne serait pas plausible :
« Je vais lâcher ça... fiction trop grossière [...]. Il y a beaucoup d'intrigues, mais les " conseillers experts médicaux " sont à côté [de] la coche trop souvent. »
« Ce n'est pas une erreur, c'est un choix lié à la réalité du nombre de comédiens qu'on peut avoir sur le plateau, et l'ensemble du projet. On ne peut pas avoir un rôle pour chaque poste, ce sont des choix narratifs. Ça ne change rien à l'histoire, au contraire, ça permet de suivre plus en profondeur chacun des personnages, au lieu de s'éparpiller sur 20 ou 25 histoires. », a alors écrit la production.« District 31 n’avait pas beaucoup de staff, mais les gestes posés étaient plus réels! », a écrit un.e fan, introduisant ainsi la comparaison avec l'émission chouchou de plusieurs Québécois.es.
« Les gestes étaient pas mal moins complexes et beaucoup moins nombreux. Tenir un pistolet, mettre des menottes, ça se résumait pas mal à ça, en termes de geste. Le reste, c'était des propos techniques au texte. Bon épisode! » , a rétorqué la production.
Lorsqu'une autre personne a comparé STAT à la populaire série médicale américaine Grey's Anatomy, la production a récidivé en expliquant les différences selon leur point de vue.
« Je comprends l’enjeu du [nombre] d’acteurs et de budget pour tout le staff et les unités de soins… mais appart les acteurs qui ont des personnages et personnalités attachantes... Il est vrai de dire qu['il y] a [beaucoup] « d’erreurs » qui sont terriblement loin de la réalité et qui me font réagir et décrocher à de nombreuses occasions moi aussi! Je vous jure que j’essaie tant que je peux, mais….(#onestloindeGreysAnatomy!)», a écrit un.e téléspectateur.trice.
« Grey's Anatomy n'est pas une quotidienne, et surtout elle n'a pas les mêmes enveloppes budgétaires. Ce serait bien de garder ça en tête...», a répondu l'équipe derrière la page Facebook de STAT.
« Oui je sais tout ça! Mais quand même... [Il y] a une méchante différence… même à côté de District ou j’ai embarqué tout de suite ! #fullaccro! Mais là… J’aime les personnages, mais [il y] a [quelque chose] qui cloche... À suivre ! », a dit un.e fan suite au commentaire de la production.
« Hiiii boboy [il y en] a une méchante gang qui [n'a] pas encore compris c'est quoi de la fiction... pour ma part j'adore vraiment beaucoup. »
« Formidable l'épisode [du] lundi 3 octobre, pour moi A+. »
Même si certain.es démontrent leur mécontentement, d'autres ne se gênent pas pour commenter à quel point iels aiment la série et les comédien.nes, qui font du bon travail.