Advance polls opened Tuesday and run until Saturday. Â
Quebecers may have a sense of déjà vu after voting on a similar question in 1980, when René Lévesque’s Parti Québécois asked whether the province should begin negotiations to leave Confederation. Nearly 60 per cent of Quebec voters were against Lévesque's proposal.
A second referendum followed in 1995, narrowly won by the "No" side. But ardent sovereigntists see profound differences in the two movements.
Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société St-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, a prominent Quebec nationalist group, believes Alberta is using the threat of separatism as leverage in negotiations with Ottawa. She sees the referendum as a means of pressure rather than a genuine desire to form a country.
“They want a bigger role within Canada and we want to leave,” she said. “They want more control over their oil and gas … we don't want pipelines.”Â
But that hasn't stopped some leaders in the Alberta separatist movement from claiming common cause.
Quebec elected the PQ — which has promised a third independence referendum — to a minority government on Oct. 5, leading figures in the Alberta separatist movement to rally behind premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and declare him a possible ally.Â
"Quebec rejected the status quo today," wrote columnist Cory Morgan — a founding member of the Alberta Independence Party in 2001 — on social media after the PQ's victory. "Alberta can do the same in two weeks by choosing to send a message with Option 2 on Question 10.”
Alberta separatist Jeffrey Rath also took to social media the day after the provincial election, saying that "for the first time in history, Alberta Independence will have the support of the elected government of Quebec." He also congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and "the country of Quebec."
The two, along with lawyer Keith Wilson, lamented that Quebec’s quest for independence is seen as legitimate while they say Alberta separatists are sneered at.
During a visit to Calgary last year, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would recognize an independent Alberta should the province vote to separate. Rath said he met with the PQ leader during that visit.
But while they believe in the democratic process of a referendum, many Quebec sovereigntists do not identify with the Alberta separatists.
Former PQ leader Jean-François LisĂ©e did not mince words when asked about Monday’s referendum.Â
"It's mostly a waste because defeat is certain," he said. “There's really nothing much to gain from watching the Alberta independence movement, except maybe negative lessons."
It’s a feeling shared by other sovereigntists.
Louise Harel, who was a PQ minister during Quebec's 1995 sovereignty referendum and later served as interim leader of the party, agrees with LisĂ©e. Both say the Quebec and Alberta sovereigntist movements are fundamentally different.Â
In their view, Quebec sovereigntists are motivated to preserve their cultural and linguistic identity, while Alberta separatists are motivated by the economy and political libertarianism. They also see a desire for Alberta to get closer to the United States, while Quebecers are wary of talk of assimilation.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she is against secession, while PQ leaders have openly called for sovereignty.
"In Quebec, the idea is to give a unique historical nation in North America, which … has valiantly resisted assimilation, the powers it needs to survive in a globalized world,” said Harel. “But there is no such issue of identity or culture in Alberta.”
While sovereigntist Quebecers also feel economically disadvantaged within Canada, Lisée said, the sentiment isn’t at the core of the movement. He also stressed that Quebec's sovereigntist parties have historically been social-democrat, while the movement in Alberta seems tied to conservatism.
Daniel Turp, a UniversitĂ© de MontrĂ©al law professor who represented both the Bloc QuĂ©bĂ©cois and the PQ, sees differences in the referendum process itself. Quebec’s two independence referendums included a single question on sovereignty.Â
As a result, there were mass mobilizations from both federalist and sovereigntist factions for weeks.Â
Public support for independence also varies widely between the two provinces.
On the eve of the 1995 referendum, public opinion was split evenly in the polls. Three days before Quebecers cast their ballots, Canadians from across the country made their way to Montreal to urge them to vote against independence.Â
Poll aggregator 338Canada shows less than 25 per cent support for Alberta to leave Canada as of Oct. 11.
“There hasn’t been a love-in in Alberta yet,” Turp said. “Maybe we’re not as worried because the polls show the option to remain will win.”Â
More than 90 per cent of registered voters cast a ballot in the 1995 referendum, which federalists won with 50.58 per cent of the vote.
“That’s the kind of voter turnout you see in countries where voting is mandatory,” said Harel. “I would be extremely surprised if voter turnout in the Alberta referendum were the same.”Â
But the sovereigntists do not reject the Alberta separatist movement entirely. All four said they sympathize with the desire for autonomy and self-determination.
"If Alberta were to vote yes, and then Ottawa would say, 'well, you can't leave,' we will be on the side of Alberta," said LisĂ©e.Â
Harel added that while she does not see ideological similarities between separatists in Quebec and Alberta, the democratic process must be respected. She said that the Alberta referendum can give legitimacy to the one promised by the PQ.Â
Asked if they worry that a no vote on Monday could affect the PQ's promised referendum, all four said no.Â
Alepin believes the two movements are too different for Albertans to influence Quebecers’ appetite for sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Lisée predicts that “the defeat of the yes side in Alberta will be a negative but very insignificant factor in (Quebec's) referendum debate.”
If Alberta stays within Canada, Turp believes the province may be inspired by Quebec’s approach to negotiating more autonomy with Ottawa.Â
“And then they can organize a second referendum, like we did,” he added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2026.
By Erika Morris | Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
